Frazier Park, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

813
FXUS66 KHNX 170317
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
717 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026


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KEY MESSAGES...
1. Strong system moves in through Thursday bringing moderate
rain and heavy snow to the region.

2. Winter Storm Warning in effect through 10 PM Wednesday for
the Sierra Nevada and Kern Mountains.

3. Winter Storm Warning in effect through 9 AM Thursday for the
I-5/Grapevine area.

4. Strong wind gusts expected along area mountain ranges, along
with the Mojave Desert and portions of the southern San Joaquin
Valley. Wind Advisory in effect through 4 pm Wednesday for the West
Side Hills and Mojave Slopes.

5. General risk of thunderstorms for northern areas this evening
and for much of the region Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

DISCUSSION...

Numerous showers will continue to affect the area tonight into
Tuesday. Gusty mainly S winds will also impact portions of the
area, strongest over the westside mountains and into the mtns
and deserts. Advisory level gusts of up to 50 mph are expected
and Wind Advisories are in effect for these areas.

With increasingly cold air aloft (down to -28 deg C at H5 this
evening), cyclonic flow and the area near a 100 kt jet exit
region, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms lingering this
evening mainly over northern portions of the forecast area.
Some thunderstorms could have heavy rain, small hail and strong,
gusty winds.

As the main energy with this first storm system moves E
tonight, it looks like rainfall will taper off some over the San
Joaquin Valley but with moist WSW flow at mid levels levels
persisting, additional significant precipitation is expected in
the Sierra, with snow levels continuing to lower down to near
3000 feet north to 4000 feet south by early Tuesday morning.
Snow levels will also lower to near 4000 feet in the Tehachapi
Mtns by early Tuesday morning.

A second storm system and cold upper level trof will affect the
area generally from Tue afternoon through Wed. Additional
significant rain and mountain snow are expected, along with a
slight chance of thunderstorms Tue afternoon and evening for
central and northern parts of the forecast area.

The  most significant concern with the storms this week is the
snow and its impacts. This is especially true Tue into Wed as a
stronger, colder second trough slides through the area, lowering
snow levels to 2000 to 2500 feet by 7 AM Wed. The best case
(low end) snow amounts shows a 90 percent chance of 2 to 3 feet
of snow above 5000 feet and 3 to 4 feet above 7000 feet. On the
other extreme, the worst case shows 5 to 6 feet above 5500 feet
and 6 to 8 feet above 7000 feet. The lowering snow elevations
also brings the potential for snow on the passes as there is a
21 percent chance of 4 inches of snow on Tejon Pass and a 5 to
20 percent chance of 4 inches of snow on Tehachapi Pass. There
also is a 5 to 10 percent chance of a trace even in the Valley.

The second storm system will bring a 45 to 60 percent chance of
another half an inch of rain ending 4 PM Wed for the Valley. As
the trough lifts on Thu and Fri, a shortwave trough slides
across northern California bringing another chance of showers,
but lighter. Temperatures will remain below average heading into
the weekend. In the long term, the CPC shows a change. The
temperature outlooks go from a 33 to 40 percent chance of below
average temperatures in the 6-10 day outlook to near normal in
the 8- 14 day outlook. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks
continue to favor above average precipitation at 40 to 50
percent for the Valley.

&&

AVIATION...
CIGs continue around FL050 through 18z Tuesday, with occasional
periods with CIGs around FL025 between 05z and 10z.
Precipitation will continue across all TAF sites through the
forecast period, with heavier precip rates causing periodic MVFR
conditions through around 05z Tuesday, then again after 18z.
IVR to MVFR conditions in the mountains due to precipitation. 10
to 20% chance for thunderstorms until 18z Tuesday; highest
chances between 20z today and 12z Tuesday in the Valley. Winds
at the TAF sites primarily near or below 12 kts until around 18z
when gusts will increase up to 25kts.

&&

AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  02/16/2026 13:22
EXPIRES: 02/17/2026 23:59

On Tuesday February 17 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is:
Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and
Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

&&

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ300-308-313-
337>339.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ318-320-
322>331-333-334-336.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM PST Thursday for CAZ335.
&&

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aviation....SP

weather.gov/hanford